Scotland operates with a balanced, direct tactical identity defined by high-intensity pressing and a reliance on key individual contributors. With an aggressive 8.7 PPDA, they prioritize disrupting opponents quickly, while Scott McTominay’s significant share of the scoring output highlights their reliance on specific attacking outlets.

Playing identity · system ↔ individual × direct ↔ possession

Scotland is plotted from possession share and top-scorer concentration. PPDA and recent form are supporting context when present.

+Recent form8 · 5W 0D 3L

2026-06-24World Cup 2026HSCO 0-3 BRAL

2026-06-19World Cup 2026HSCO 0-1 MARL

2026-06-14World Cup 2026ASCO 1-0 HAIW

2025-11-18World Cup 2026 qualifying · UEFAHSCO 4-2 DENxG 1.7-2.5W

2025-11-15World Cup 2026 qualifying · UEFAASCO 2-3 GRExG 1.5-2.8L

2025-10-12World Cup 2026 qualifying · UEFAHSCO 2-1 BLRxG 1.1-0.9W

2025-10-09World Cup 2026 qualifying · UEFAHSCO 3-1 GRExG 1.4-1.4W

2025-09-08World Cup 2026 qualifying · UEFAASCO 2-0 BLRxG 2.3-0.7W

International friendly matches are excluded

N2 · Scoring

open play 100%

How they score

Scotland relies exclusively on open play to generate their classified goal output. With 100% of their classified goals originating from open play, the team demonstrates a clear preference for building through active movement rather than set-piece situations. This reliance highlights the importance of their primary attacking threats in creating and finishing chances during active phases of play.

Goal source · share of play-type-classified goals

100%

Open play100%

Effectiveness · conversion by source vs benchmark

Open play18%avg 20%-1 pts

19 goals from 103 shots.

Set piece0.0%avg 4.5%-4 pts

0 goals from 44 shots.

benchmark average higher than field by 3+ pts lower than field by 3+ pts

Goal-source shares use non-own-goal rows with source_class values; own goals are excluded.

+Top scorers · still a threat?100% intact

100% of listed scorer goals come from players still marked in the squad.

Scott McTominay	in squad	13 · 27%
John McGinn	in squad	7 · 14%
Lyndon Dykes	in squad	4 · 8%
Ryan Christie	in squad	4 · 8%

N3 · Conceding

open play 84%

How they concede

Scotland's defensive structure is most vulnerable to sustained pressure in open play. With 84% of their classified goals conceded during active play, opponents may find success by prioritizing quick transitions and fluid movement to bypass their defensive shape. While their set-piece defense remains relatively stable, the high volume of shots faced in open play suggests a recurring challenge in maintaining defensive organization.

Conceded goal source · share of play-type-classified goals

84%

Open play84%Corner8%Free kick8%

16% set piece concededcorner + free kick

Effectiveness · conceded conversion by source vs benchmark

Open play11%avg 20%-9 pts

21 conceded from 196 shots faced.

Set piece5.8%avg 4.5%+1 pts

4 conceded from 69 shots faced.

benchmark average lower than field by 3+ pts higher than field by 3+ pts

Conceded source shares use non-own-goal rows with source_class values.

N4 · Big moments

falls short · -0.26 GD residual

Better than their rating?

Scotland currently trends slightly below their Elo-based expectations. While the team demonstrates high-ceiling potential with notable upsets against top-tier opponents, their overall goal difference residual of -0.26 suggests a tendency to underperform against the statistical baseline.

Over-performance DNA · beats-its-rating × reliability, the tournament field

SCOTournament field · 48solid line = rating-neutral · dashed = field-median reliability100 Elo ~= -0.37 goals

+Biggest over- & under-performances37 matches

Residual = actual goal difference minus what the Elo gap predicted.

vs UKR · 2022-09-21	GD +3 vs exp +0.22	+2.78
vs ESP · 2023-03-28	GD +2 vs exp -0.44	+2.44
vs DEN · 2025-11-18	GD +2 vs exp +0.08	+1.92
vs GER · 2024-06-14	GD -4 vs exp -0.03	-3.97
vs IRL · 2022-06-11	GD -3 vs exp +0.72	-3.72
vs GRE · 2025-03-23	GD -3 vs exp +0.24	-3.24