Group D
PAR

Paraguay

Coach: Gustavo Alfaro
Group rank
3
Points
4
Played
3
Goal diff.
-2
Status
Qualified as best third-place team
Fixtures
By date
Fixtures / results
Sat, Jun 13
United StatesvsParaguay
FT 4-1
Group D
Sat, Jun 20
TurkeyvsParaguay
FT 0-1
Group D
Fri, Jun 26
ParaguayvsAustralia
FT 0-0
Group D
Mon, Jun 29
GermanyvsParaguay
FT 1-1 · PEN 3-4
Round of 32
Sat, Jul 4
ParaguayvsFrance
FT 0-1
Round of 16
Countries
Groups overview
Group D
1USAQ
PL 32-0-1GF 8-4GD 4PTS 6
2AUSQ
PL 31-1-1GF 2-2GD 0PTS 4
3PARQ
PL 31-1-1GF 2-4GD -2PTS 4
4TUROut
PL 31-0-2GF 3-5GD -2PTS 3
#TeamPLWDL+/-GDPTSStatus
1United States32018-446Qualified
2Australia31112-204Qualified
3Paraguay31112-4-24Qualified
4Turkey31023-5-23Out
Nation lens
Identity1 / 4
N1 · Identity
individual-led · direct

How they play

Paraguay operates with a direct, individual-led tactical identity. With a low possession share of 35.6% and a high-intensity press, they rely on individual moments from key contributors like Antonio Sanabria to drive their attacking output. This approach forces opponents to remain disciplined against quick transitions and focused threats.

Playing identity · system ↔ individual × direct ↔ possession
SystemIndividualPossessionDirectSystem-builtpossessionStar-ledpossessionPress-and-transitionStar-ledcounter-attackersPAR

Paraguay is plotted from possession share and top-scorer concentration. PPDA and recent form are supporting context when present.

+Recent form8 · 4W 2D 2L
2026-07-04World Cup 2026HPAR 0-1 FRAL
2026-06-29Fifa World Cup 2026APAR 5-4 GERW
2026-06-29World Cup 2026APAR 1-1 PEN 4-3 GERW
2026-06-26World Cup 2026HPAR 0-0 AUSD
2026-06-20World Cup 2026APAR 1-0 TURW
2026-06-13World Cup 2026APAR 1-4 USAL
2025-09-09World Cup 2026 qualifying · CONMEBOLAPAR 1-0 PERW
2025-09-04World Cup 2026 qualifying · CONMEBOLHPAR 0-0 ECUD
International friendly matches are excluded
N2 · Scoring
open play 88%

How they score

Paraguay relies heavily on open play to generate their scoring opportunities. With 88% of their goals originating from open play, the team prioritizes fluid movement over set-piece reliance. While they maintain a consistent attacking presence, their conversion rate in open play remains below the field average.

Goal source · share of play-type-classified goals
88.2%
Open play88.2%Corner5.9%Free kick5.9%
12% set piececorner + free kick
Effectiveness · conversion by source vs benchmark
Open play9.9%avg 20%-10 pts
15 goals from 151 shots.
Set piece2.2%avg 4.5%-2 pts
2 goals from 90 shots.
benchmark average higher than field by 3+ pts lower than field by 3+ pts
Goal-source shares use non-own-goal rows with source_class values; own goals are excluded.
+Top scorers · still a threat?100% intact

100% of listed scorer goals come from players still marked in the squad.

Antonio Sanabriain squad4 · 22%
Julio Encisoin squad4 · 22%
Matías Galarzain squad2 · 11%
Omar Alderetein squad2 · 11%
N3 · Conceding
open play 81%

How they concede

Paraguay is most vulnerable to goals originating from open play. With over 81% of their conceded goals arriving through active play, opponents may find success by prioritizing quick transitions and sustained pressure. Their defensive structure remains relatively resilient against set-piece opportunities by comparison.

Conceded goal source · share of play-type-classified goals
81.3%
Open play81.3%Corner6.3%Free kick12.5%
19% set piece concededcorner + free kick
Effectiveness · conceded conversion by source vs benchmark
Open play9.2%avg 20%-10 pts
13 conceded from 142 shots faced.
Set piece4.7%avg 4.5%+0 pts
3 conceded from 64 shots faced.
benchmark average lower than field by 3+ pts higher than field by 3+ pts
Conceded source shares use non-own-goal rows with source_class values.
N4 · Big moments
in line with ranking · -0.17 GD residual

Better than their rating?

Paraguay's performance aligns closely with their current Elo ranking. With a residual of -0.17, they demonstrate a level of consistency that exceeds the field median. While they are capable of significant upsets against top-tier opponents, their overall output remains tethered to their established rating.

Over-performance DNA · beats-its-rating × reliability, the tournament field
Beats rating -><- Falls shortVolatile ^Reliable vHigh-ceilingwildcardVolatileunderachieverReliablyoverdeliversReliablybelow par-1.7-0.90+0.9+1.70.81.41.92.5Beats its Elo rating by (goals/match) ->ESPNORHAICODPAR
PARTournament field · 48solid line = rating-neutral · dashed = field-median reliability100 Elo ~= -0.37 goals
+Biggest over- & under-performances27 matches
Residual = actual goal difference minus what the Elo gap predicted.
vs URU · 2025-06-05GD +2 vs exp -0.26+2.26
vs ARG · 2024-11-14GD +1 vs exp -0.97+1.97
vs BRA · 2024-09-11GD +1 vs exp -0.49+1.49
vs USA · 2026-06-12GD -3 vs exp +0.56-3.56
vs BRA · 2024-06-29GD -3 vs exp -0.49-2.51
vs CRC · 2024-07-03GD -1 vs exp +1.12-2.12