

Lineup
The head-to-head story
Turkey enters this matchup with a slight edge in both Elo rating and recent form. While the two sides have no direct history, the game hinges on tactical battles: Turkey will look for Çalhanoğlu to bypass the midfield press, while Paraguay relies on Almirón to exploit space on the right flank.
What kind of game?
Turkey enters the match with a significantly more potent attacking profile than Paraguay. While Turkey dominates possession and expected goals, Paraguay relies heavily on set-piece opportunities to generate their threat. The match will likely hinge on whether Paraguay's defensive resistance can contain Turkey's sustained pressure.
| Axis | TUR | PAR |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | 54.8% | 35.6% |
| Defending | 5.2 resistance | 5.0 resistance |
| Set pieces | 25.4% | 40.0% |
| Threat | 2.21 xG/match | 0.38 xG/match |
Where it'll be decided
The central corridor remains the primary focal point for both Turkey and Paraguay. With both sides funneling over 75% of their attacking output through the middle, the match will likely be contested in the congested central channel. Expect the right wing to serve as a secondary pressure point where Turkey's attacking tendencies align with Paraguay's defensive vulnerabilities.
Who to watch
Turkey and Paraguay enter this match defined by their distinct system-led tactical identities. Turkey will look to dictate the tempo through sustained box pressure and high possession, while Paraguay aims to leverage their set-piece dominance to disrupt the flow of the game.