Iran operates as an individual-led side that balances possession with a measured approach. With Mehdi Taremi responsible for nearly a third of their scoring output, the team relies on key personnel to provide the decisive edge in tight matches. Their mixed-tempo style suggests a tactical flexibility that allows them to remain competitive against varied opposition.

Playing identity · system ↔ individual × direct ↔ possession

Iran is plotted from possession share and top-scorer concentration. PPDA and recent form are supporting context when present.

+Recent form8 · 3W 4D 1L

2026-06-27World Cup 2026AIRN 1-1 EGYD

2026-06-21World Cup 2026AIRN 0-0 BELD

2026-06-16World Cup 2026HIRN 2-2 NZLD

2025-06-10World Cup 2026 qualifying · AFCHIRN 3-0 PRKW

2025-06-05World Cup 2026 qualifying · AFCAIRN 0-1 QATL

2025-03-25World Cup 2026 qualifying · AFCHIRN 2-2 UZBD

2025-03-20World Cup 2026 qualifying · AFCHIRN 2-0 UAEW

2024-11-19World Cup 2026 qualifying · AFCAIRN 3-2 KGZW

International friendly matches are excluded

N2 · Scoring

open play 93%

How they score

Iran relies heavily on open play to generate their scoring output. With over 93% of their goals originating from open play, the team demonstrates a clear preference for building through active phases rather than set pieces. Their efficiency in these situations consistently outperforms the field average.

Goal source · share of play-type-classified goals

93.2%

Open play93.2%Counter4.5%Corner2.3%

2% set piececorner + free kick

Effectiveness · conversion by source vs benchmark

Open play23%avg 20%+3 pts

43 goals from 189 shots.

Set piece1.4%avg 4.5%-3 pts

1 goals from 69 shots.

benchmark average higher than field by 3+ pts lower than field by 3+ pts

Goal-source shares use non-own-goal rows with source_class values; own goals are excluded.

+Top scorers · still a threat?73% intact

73% of listed scorer goals come from players still marked in the squad.

Mehdi Taremi	in squad	15 · 29%
Sardar Azmoun	out	10 · 20%
Mohammad Mohebi	in squad	7 · 14%
Mehdi Ghayedi	in squad	5 · 10%

N3 · Conceding

open play 84%

How they concede

Iran is highly susceptible to conceding through open play, which accounts for 84% of their classified goals against. Opponents may find success by prioritizing fluid attacking transitions to break down their defensive structure. While set-piece threats remain, the primary defensive vulnerability lies in managing sustained pressure during active play.

Conceded goal source · share of play-type-classified goals

84%

Open play84%Counter4%Corner8%Free kick4%

12% set piece concededcorner + free kick

Effectiveness · conceded conversion by source vs benchmark

Open play19%avg 20%0 pts

22 conceded from 113 shots faced.

Set piece7.0%avg 4.5%+3 pts

3 conceded from 43 shots faced.

benchmark average lower than field by 3+ pts higher than field by 3+ pts

Conceded source shares use non-own-goal rows with source_class values.

N4 · Big moments

falls short · -0.40 GD residual

Better than their rating?

Iran consistently underperforms relative to their Elo-based expectations. With a -0.40 goal difference residual, the team struggles to bridge the gap against higher-rated opposition while maintaining lower volatility than the field median.

Over-performance DNA · beats-its-rating × reliability, the tournament field

IRNTournament field · 48solid line = rating-neutral · dashed = field-median reliability100 Elo ~= -0.37 goals

+Biggest over- & under-performances25 matches

Residual = actual goal difference minus what the Elo gap predicted.

vs WAL · 2022-11-25	GD +2 vs exp +0.16	+1.84
vs QAT · 2024-10-15	GD +3 vs exp +1.27	+1.73
vs PLE · 2024-01-14	GD +3 vs exp +1.74	+1.26
vs ENG · 2022-11-21	GD -4 vs exp -0.57	-3.43
vs QAT · 2025-06-05	GD -1 vs exp +1.31	-2.31
vs QAT · 2024-02-07	GD -1 vs exp +1.27	-2.27