Germany operates as a possession-dominant side with a heavy emphasis on collective system play. With a high possession share and aggressive pressing, they prioritize control, while Florian Wirtz serves as the primary focal point for their attacking output.

Playing identity · system ↔ individual × direct ↔ possession

Germany is plotted from possession share and top-scorer concentration. PPDA and recent form are supporting context when present.

+Recent form8 · 5W 0D 3L

2026-06-29Fifa World Cup 2026HGER 4-5 PARL

2026-06-29World Cup 2026HGER 1-1 PEN 3-4 PARL

2026-06-25World Cup 2026AGER 1-2 ECUL

2026-06-20World Cup 2026HGER 2-1 CIVW

2026-06-14World Cup 2026HGER 7-1 CUWW

2025-11-17World Cup 2026 qualifying · UEFAHGER 6-0 SVKxG 3.3-0.9W

2025-11-14World Cup 2026 qualifying · UEFAAGER 2-0 LUXxG 1.4-0.5W

2025-10-13World Cup 2026 qualifying · UEFAAGER 1-0 NIRxG 1.0-1.1W

International friendly matches are excluded

N2 · Scoring

open play 83%

How they score

Germany relies heavily on open play to generate their scoring output. With 83% of their goals originating from open play, the team demonstrates a consistent ability to break down defenses through structured build-up. While set pieces provide a secondary threat, their primary offensive identity remains rooted in fluid, active movement.

Goal source · share of play-type-classified goals

82.5%

Open play82.5%Counter1.8%Corner8.8%Free kick7%

16% set piececorner + free kick

Effectiveness · conversion by source vs benchmark

Open play18%avg 20%-1 pts

48 goals from 261 shots.

Set piece8.8%avg 4.5%+4 pts

9 goals from 102 shots.

benchmark average higher than field by 3+ pts lower than field by 3+ pts

Goal-source shares use non-own-goal rows with source_class values; own goals are excluded.

+Top scorers · still a threat?100% intact

100% of listed scorer goals come from players still marked in the squad.

Kai Havertz	in squad	11 · 13%
Florian Wirtz	in squad	9 · 11%
Jamal Musiala	in squad	7 · 8%
Joshua Kimmich	in squad	6 · 7%

N3 · Conceding

open play 73%

How they concede

Germany's defensive structure is most vulnerable to sustained open play. With 73% of goals conceded in open play, opponents capable of quick transitions and fluid movement may find significant gaps. While set-piece conversion rates are also notable, the primary defensive challenge remains managing space during active phases of play.

Conceded goal source · share of play-type-classified goals

73.3%

Open play73.3%Counter6.7%Corner10%Free kick10%

20% set piece concededcorner + free kick

Effectiveness · conceded conversion by source vs benchmark

Open play18%avg 20%-2 pts

24 conceded from 133 shots faced.

Set piece11%avg 4.5%+6 pts

6 conceded from 56 shots faced.

benchmark average lower than field by 3+ pts higher than field by 3+ pts

Conceded source shares use non-own-goal rows with source_class values.

N4 · Big moments

beats ranking · +0.75 GD residual

Better than their rating?

Germany consistently outperforms their Elo-based expectations with a positive goal difference residual of 0.75. While their performance profile shows higher volatility than the field median, they frequently exceed scoring projections against comparable opponents. This trend suggests a tactical identity capable of delivering high-impact results beyond their current world ranking.

Over-performance DNA · beats-its-rating × reliability, the tournament field

GERTournament field · 48solid line = rating-neutral · dashed = field-median reliability100 Elo ~= -0.37 goals

+Biggest over- & under-performances43 matches

Residual = actual goal difference minus what the Elo gap predicted.

vs BIH · 2024-11-16	GD +7 vs exp +1.45	+5.55
vs BIH · 2024-11-16	GD +7 vs exp +1.45	+5.55
vs SVK · 2025-11-17	GD +6 vs exp +0.65	+5.35
vs SVK · 2025-09-04	GD -2 vs exp +0.65	-2.65
vs KOR · 2018-06-27	GD -2 vs exp +0.44	-2.44
vs ENG · 2021-06-29	GD -2 vs exp -0.31	-1.69