Bosnia and Herzegovina operates as an individual-led, direct attacking side. The tactical identity relies heavily on Edin Džeko, who accounts for one-third of the team's scoring output. This reliance on a focal point often dictates a direct approach rather than sustained possession.

Playing identity · system ↔ individual × direct ↔ possession

Bosnia and Herzegovina is plotted from possession share and top-scorer concentration. PPDA and recent form are supporting context when present.

+Recent form8 · 4W 2D 2L

2026-07-02World Cup 2026ABIH 0-2 USAL

2026-06-24World Cup 2026HBIH 3-1 QATW

2026-06-18World Cup 2026ABIH 1-4 SUIL

2026-06-12World Cup 2026ABIH 1-1 CAND

2026-03-31World Cup 2026 qualifying · UEFAHBIH 5-2 ITAxG 2.6-1.5W

2026-03-26World Cup 2026 qualifying · UEFAABIH 5-3 WALxG 1.9-1.5W

2025-11-18World Cup 2026 qualifying · UEFAABIH 1-1 AUTxG 0.9-1.0D

2025-11-15World Cup 2026 qualifying · UEFAHBIH 3-1 ROUxG 1.8-1.2W

International friendly matches are excluded

N2 · Scoring

open play 91%

How they score

Bosnia and Herzegovina relies almost exclusively on open play to generate their scoring output. With over 90% of their goals originating from open play, the team prioritizes fluid movement over set-piece reliance. This tactical preference is anchored by the clinical finishing of Edin Džeko and Ermedin Demirović.

Goal source · share of play-type-classified goals

90.9%

Open play90.9%Counter4.5%Corner4.5%

5% set piececorner + free kick

Effectiveness · conversion by source vs benchmark

Open play15%avg 20%-5 pts

21 goals from 142 shots.

Set piece1.5%avg 4.5%-3 pts

1 goals from 65 shots.

benchmark average higher than field by 3+ pts lower than field by 3+ pts

Goal-source shares use non-own-goal rows with source_class values; own goals are excluded.

+Top scorers · still a threat?92% intact

92% of listed scorer goals come from players still marked in the squad.

Edin Džeko	in squad	14 · 34%
Ermedin Demirović	in squad	6 · 15%
Haris Tabaković	in squad	3 · 7%
Rade Krunić	out	2 · 5%

N3 · Conceding

open play 92%

How they concede

Bosnia and Herzegovina are overwhelmingly susceptible to conceding through open play. With 92% of their classified goals against originating from open-play sequences, opponents may find success by prioritizing fluid, structured attacking transitions. Their defensive setup appears significantly more vulnerable to sustained ball movement than to set-piece scenarios.

Conceded goal source · share of play-type-classified goals

91.7%

Open play91.7%Counter4.2%Corner4.2%

4% set piece concededcorner + free kick

Effectiveness · conceded conversion by source vs benchmark

Open play15%avg 20%-5 pts

23 conceded from 156 shots faced.

Set piece1.7%avg 4.5%-3 pts

1 conceded from 59 shots faced.

benchmark average lower than field by 3+ pts higher than field by 3+ pts

Conceded source shares use non-own-goal rows with source_class values.

N4 · Big moments

falls short · -1.41 GD residual

Better than their rating?

Bosnia and Herzegovina consistently underperforms relative to their Elo-based expectations. With a residual of -1.41, the team struggles to bridge the gap against higher-rated opponents and exhibits higher volatility than the field median. While they have shown flashes of potential in isolated matches, their overall output remains below the baseline for their current ranking.

Over-performance DNA · beats-its-rating × reliability, the tournament field

BIHTournament field · 48solid line = rating-neutral · dashed = field-median reliability100 Elo ~= -0.37 goals

+Biggest over- & under-performances43 matches

Residual = actual goal difference minus what the Elo gap predicted.

vs ITA · 2026-03-31	GD +3 vs exp +0.07	+2.93
vs SMR · 2025-09-06	GD +6 vs exp +3.81	+2.19
vs ISL · 2023-03-23	GD +3 vs exp +1.24	+1.76
vs GER · 2024-11-16	GD -7 vs exp -0.03	-6.97
vs GER · 2024-11-16	GD -7 vs exp -0.03	-6.97
vs LUX · 2023-11-16	GD -3 vs exp +1.61	-4.61