

Lineup
The head-to-head story
Spain enters this quarter-final as the clear favorite, backed by a superior Elo rating and a dominant recent record against Belgium. While Spain has smothered their opponents with a perfect defensive record in this tournament, Belgium's transition-focused attack faces the ultimate test against a possession-heavy system that has historically stifled them.
+-Recent meetings5 matches
What kind of game?
Belgium enters this matchup with a more pronounced reliance on set-piece opportunities compared to Spain. While both sides maintain high possession figures, Spain’s superior defensive resistance and higher expected goals profile suggest they may look to dictate play through sustained pressure rather than dead-ball situations.
| Axis | ESP | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | 64.1% | 67.0% |
| Defending | 7.9 resistance | 6.5 resistance |
| Set pieces | 19.2% | 25.4% |
| Threat | 2.03 xG/match | 1.93 xG/match |
Where it'll be decided
The central corridor remains the primary tactical focus for both sides. While Spain shows a slight tendency to exploit the left flank, the heavy concentration of play through the middle suggests the match will be contested in tight, congested spaces.
Who to watch
Both Spain and Belgium rely on high-volume box pressure and shot generation to dictate play. The match will likely hinge on whether either side can convert sustained territory into high-value attempts while managing the defensive trade-offs required to contain such aggressive systems.